Super Bowl Sunday is finally here.
After a two-week ramp-up, the Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers duke it out tonight in Las Vegas to see who gets to lay claim to the Lombardi Trophy.
And it’s not just the players and coaches feeling that Big Game buzz. Sports bettors have been picking apart the Super Bowl odds ever since this AFC/NFC matchup was made.
There are endless ways to wager, which makes for a long list of Super Bowl predictions by the time tonight’s kickoff rolls around at 6:30 p.m. ET.
Below, I focus on the moneyline, point spread, and Over/Under total for Super Bowl 58 and give my best NFL picks for Chiefs vs. 49ers.
49ers vs Chiefs odds
49ers vs Chiefs predictions
My first Super Bowl bet was grabbing the Kansas City Chiefs on the moneyline at +115 the minute odds hit the board two weeks ago.
The Chiefs opened as big as 3-point underdogs (-122) at FanDuel, which lasted mere seconds before money blasted that key number and quickly worked this line down to Kansas City +1.5 in the first 12 hours of action.
Over the past two weeks, the K.C. moneyline went from +115 to as low as -105 and after some buyback on the 49ers outright odds, the Chiefs are priced between +105 and +110 to win Super Bowl LVIII.
There has been no shortage of support for the Chiefs, given they’re the reigning champs and looked much stronger in the eyes of the betting public after a 17-10 win in Baltimore in the AFC title game.
I mean, what’s not to like?
You have a head coach who is one of the best bets in football off a bye (Andy Reid is 31-7 straight up following a week off), the most clutch player in the league — who’s also a Top-5 QB all-time — and a dangerous defense that ranks Top 10 in DVOA and EPA allowed per play and just so happens to be playing its best football right now.
Despite the San Francisco 49ers being the Big Game chalk, there seem to be more questions surrounding them entering Super Bowl LVIII.
The 49ers’ defense has been among the elite stop units all year but is buckling at a bad time, giving up more than 770 total yards in two postseason outings. Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs aren’t the high-powered offense they once were, but we’ve seen glimpses of that output in the postseason — especially with tight end Travis Kelce coming on.
San Fran quarterback Brock Purdy is also coming up short when measured against his K.C. counterpart, even with Purdy’s play helping rally San Francisco in the second half of the NFC Championship. There’s the thought the youngster can’t win the Super Bowl for the 49ers by himself (like Mahomes), but he could lose it for them.
Those sentiments dragged down the line for Super Bowl LVIII and had this market trending toward a pick’em before action on the 49ers showed up and helped counter all the K.C. tickets.
Regardless of the matchup, the Super Bowl underdog on the moneyline always draws support from the casual bettors. And unlike almost every other week of NFL betting, the public is the driving force for movement — not the sharps.
With the spread bouncing between dead numbers, the moneyline makes more sense for either side as there have only been nine Big Games in which a team won the Lombardi Trophy but failed to cover the spread (0-7-2 ATS).
If you’re on the Chiefs like I am, take the best outright price you can right now.
My best bet: Chiefs moneyline (+114 at FanDuel)Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
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49ers vs Chiefs same-game parlay
Chiefs moneylineBrock Purdy Over 11.5 rushing yardsGeorge Kittle Over 52.5 receiving yardsNo-sweat promo available
+553 at FanDuel
The Chiefs are playing their best two-way football off the season. The defense is giving Mahomes a chance to make magic and he doesn’t shrink on the Super Bowl stage.
Purdy isn’t known for his mobility, but in games against high-pressure pass rushes he’s had to run for his life. Purdy had his biggest rushing efforts against aggressive defenses — 13 yards vs. Tampa Bay, 16 yards vs. Cincinnati, 17 yards vs. Minnesota, 17 yards vs. Pittsburgh — and showed he can make plays with his legs in the NFC title game with 48 yards vs. Detroit’s top pressure pass rush.
George Kittle is Purdy’s safety blanket against blitz-heavy foes. He had monster games against the likes of Green Bay, Tampa Bay, Jacksonville, and Minnesota, drawing 27 targets for 18 catches and 364 total yards — an average of 91 yards per game against those blitz-happy schemes.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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