If the NFL Week 12 odds were the Thanksgiving dinner table, Sunday’s game between the Carolina Panthers at Tennessee Titans would be your aunt’s nasty-ass casserole that nobody touches.
Luckily, we have sports betting to make this matchup somewhat appetizing. Think of the spread, total, and prop odds as cheese and bacon — they can make anything taste good.
Tennessee is a short favorite at home with some questions around the quarterback position. It appears that rookie QB Will Levis will be under center in Week 12, after missing practice with an ankle injury.
As for the Panthers, they’re sticking with their first-year quarterback Bryce Young despite a debut season that belongs at the bottom of a Red Lobster dumpster. They do have reinforcements showing up on the defensive side of the ball, which will be needed considering how crappy the Carolina offense is.
I chew on the spread and Over/Under total for this non-conference clash and give my best NFL picks for Panthers at Titans on Sunday, November 26.
Panthers vs Titans odds
Panthers vs Titans predictions
Nissan Field is a sight for sore eyes when the Tennessee Titans take their home field for just the fourth time this season.
Yeah, it’s Week 12 and the Titans have heard the cheers of the Music City faithful only three times before this weekend. Crazy, right?
This homecoming is especially sweet after a stretch of three straight road games for Tennessee, suffering losses at Jacksonville, Tampa Bay, and Pittsburgh. The Titans scored a collective 36 points during this skid but did face some sound defensive opposition.
That recent uphill climb and the Titans’ road-heavy sked is skewing how the market views this offense. Tennessee averages only 12.3 points per road game but has posted scores of 28, 27, and 27 in its three homestands.
The Week 12 team totals have Tennessee’s Over/Under at 20.5 points with the Over providing plus-money at most books.
The Carolina Panthers aren’t on par with those previous opponents in terms of defensive fortitude, even with some bodies coming back in the secondary. The Panthers surrender over 32 points per road game — second most in the NFL — and sit in the basement in advanced defensive measurements heading into Week 12.
The Titans will have rookie QB Will Levis under center for Sunday’s game, which gives this passing attack a dose of danger as the first-year pro can push the ball downfield and has hit guys like WR DeAndre Hopkins for home run plays.
The Tennessee rushing attack should feast on a poor Panthers run stop, as well. Carolina is 21st in run-stop win rate at ESPN and dead last in EPA allowed per handoff and opponent success rate per run.
The Titans still have a guy by the name of Derrick Henry. While he may not be involved in the offense as much, due to Tennessee often playing from behind, he’s still a force on the ground and in the red zone.
They have been bad inside the red zone on the road, scoring a touchdown on just 20% of their trips inside the 20-yard line, but find paydirt at a near 67% clip in Nashville. The Panthers, on the other hand, allow host teams to score on 80% of their red zone tries.
My best bet: Titans team total Over 20.5 (+105 at FanDuel)Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
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Panthers vs Titans same-game parlay
Titans team total Over 20.5Titans moneylineDerrick Henry anytime touchdown
+212 at FanDuel
With the Titans trending in the 4-point favorite range, it’s somewhat a “no-man’s land” of spreads. Keep it clean and take Tennessee to win outright.
Tennessee’s team total is a reflection of the past three games coming on the road against sound stop units. The Titans are a more potent offense at home, they just haven’t played there much.
Henry is still a goal-line weapon and Carolina stinks at keeping foes out of the end zone, allowing the most rushing touchdowns in the league.
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