The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have a golden chance to bolster their lead over the NFC South when they visit the New Orleans Saints — or what’s left of them — in Week 6.
My Buccaneers vs. Saints predictions break down why you should drink the juice on Tampa moneyline instead of targeting the spread. Find out all about it in my NFL picks for Sunday, October 13.
Buccaneers vs Saints prediction
My best betTampa Bay moneyline (-182 at BetMGM)
My analysisAfter Derek Carr left the New Orleans Saints’ game against the Chiefs last Monday, oddsmakers anticipated there was a good chance the veteran QB would miss Week 6’s meeting with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers due to the short week.
New Orleans opened as a 3-point home underdog, with that key number jumping to +3.5 shortly after, as early action tried to get ahead of the Carr news.
The team officially announced rookie QB Spencer Rattler as the Week 6 starter later in the week, and the market held at Tampa Bay -3.5 — perhaps a surprise standstill considering the rest edge for the Bucs, who are off a mini bye after playing last Thursday.
While the Saints have a slew of ailments all over the depth chart, so do the Buccaneers. Injuries in the opening five weeks have decimated Tampa Bay’s defense, and now names on the offense — specifically the offensive line — are showing up as questionable for Week 6.
On top of that, the distraction from the devastation of Hurricane Milton has the Bucs players not solely focused on football this week, with the team leaving Tampa early and evacuating families ahead of the hurricane’s landfall on Wednesday evening. There are also plans in place if the team can’t return after Sunday’s game.
However, while off-field worries loom large, Tampa Bay’s players are putting importance on their performance this Sunday, with guys like Mike Evans and Baker Mayfield telling reporters they’re going out there for their fans and “trying to play for something a little bit bigger”.
The injuries and off-field issues give me reason to pause on the Tampa Bay point spread, especially on the other side of a field goal, but I do believe the Bucs win outright.
That bet has everything to do with Todd Bowles’ defense going up against a rookie passer making his pro debut. Tampa Bay is one of the most blitz-heavy schemes in the league and brings extra pass rushers on almost 31% of its opponent’s dropbacks.
That would be enough to make most QBs piss themselves, but when you also consider the shape of the Saints’ offensive line, things could get sideways fast for Rattler inside the Superdome on Sunday.
New Orleans’ pass protection started the season shorthanded (Shane Lemieux, Ryan Ramczyk, and Erik McCoy all out) and has guard-turned-center Lucas Patrick and G Cesar Ruiz listed as questionable for Week 6. Overall, NOLA ranks 29th in pass block win rate at ESPN.
If Rattler is able to stay upright, his list of options could be slim, considering RB Alvin Kamara and WR Rashid Shaheed have either missed or been limited in practice heading toward the weekend.
The Saints’ offense has plummeted back to earth after a hot two-week trend to start 2024, managing only 50 total points the past three games and falling to 25th in EPA per play in that span.
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Buccaneers vs Saints same-game parlay
Buccaneers moneyline New Orleans team total Under 19.5 Bucky Irving Over 37.5 rushing yards
+190 at BetMGM
Tampa Bay’s pass rush will feast on the rookie QB and a dangerously thin NOLA o-line. The Bucs get a big win at the end of a long week.
The Saints’ offense will stall on the short week with a first-year QB running low on options.
The Bucs will turn to the ground game to secure the win in the second half, and Irving’s projections sit north of 40 yards.
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Buccaneers vs Saints odds
Buccaneers vs Saints live odds
Buccaneers vs Saints opening odds
- Spread: Tampa Bay +3 (-125) | New Orleans -3 (-105)
- Moneyline: Tampa Bay +120 | New Orleans -145
- Over/Under: Over 45 (-120) | Under 45 (-110)
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Buccaneers vs Saints spread and Over/Under analysis
- Tampa Bay opened as a field-goal favorite, and with rookie Spencer Rattler starting in place of NOLA QB Derek Carr, this spread has climbed to Bucs -3.5.
- The total opened as high as 45.5 O/U but with Carr’s injury, this number took a nose dive to as low as 41 before buyback on the Over brought it back up to 41.5 O/U.
- According to Covers Consensus, 53% of spread picks are backing the Buccaneers, while 67% of total picks are taking the Over.
